Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
Bahia	Draw	Fortaleza
38.16%	27.57%	34.27%

Both teams to score 48.99%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.28%

56.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.33%

77.67%

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.21%

28.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.36%

64.64%

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.8%

31.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.46%

67.54%

Score Analysis

Bahia 38.16%

Fortaleza 34.27%

Draw 27.56%

Bahia	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 11.18% 2-1 @ 8.11% 2-0 @ 6.96% 3-1 @ 3.37% 3-0 @ 2.89% 3-2 @ 1.96% 4-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.16%	1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 8.99% 2-2 @ 4.72% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.56%	0-1 @ 10.46% 1-2 @ 7.59% 0-2 @ 6.09% 1-3 @ 2.95% 0-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.83% Other @ 2.98% Total : 34.27%