Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
