SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bahia | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 38.16% | 27.57% | 34.27% |
| Both teams to score 48.99% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.28% | 56.72% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.33% | 77.67% |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.21% | 28.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.36% | 64.64% |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.8% | 31.2% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.46% | 67.54% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bahia | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 1-0 @ 11.18% 2-1 @ 8.11% 2-0 @ 6.96% 3-1 @ 3.37% 3-0 @ 2.89% 3-2 @ 1.96% 4-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.16% | 1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 8.99% 2-2 @ 4.72% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.56% | 0-1 @ 10.46% 1-2 @ 7.59% 0-2 @ 6.09% 1-3 @ 2.95% 0-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.83% Other @ 2.98% Total : 34.27% |
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