Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 57.8%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 18.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
