Mineiro will not be an easy defensive unit to break down, but Fogo are more than comfortable in tight games, and we believe they will find a solution given all the momentum they have on their side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 37.22%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
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