Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
0.49) 
-0.13) 
