Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.59%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Ceara win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
