Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.