Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 51.15%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Botafogo | Draw | Gremio |
51.15% ( 0.18) | 23.76% ( 0.19) | 25.09% ( -0.37) |
Both teams to score 55.89% ( -1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.6% ( -1.15) | 45.4% ( 1.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.27% ( -1.11) | 67.73% ( 1.12) |
Botafogo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.22% ( -0.37) | 17.78% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.51% ( -0.64) | 48.49% ( 0.64) |
Gremio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.97% ( -0.91) | 32.03% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.51% ( -1.05) | 68.5% ( 1.06) |
Score Analysis |
Botafogo | Draw | Gremio |
1-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.11% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.64% Total : 51.15% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.75% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.63% Total : 25.09% |
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