Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 51.15%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
0.18) 
-0.37) 
