Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 53.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 21.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.49%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Coritiba win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.62) 
