Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 56.59%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
0.5) 
-0.07) 
