Cuiaba have done an excellent job at defending the dangerous scoring areas of the field, however they rarely seem to be able to muster much offence on the road, and it will not be easy to penetrate a rock-solid backline in Coritiba, who play their best at home.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 18.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.82%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Coritiba in this match.
0.91) 
-0.27) 
