While Cuiaba have certainly shown encouraging signs recently, putting together back-to-back wins and pushing the league leaders close, we do not see them having enough to match the defending champions on Thursday.
With their sights set on top spot, Atletico Mineiro will be keen to post another three-point haul and should outclass their hosts.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.38%) and 1-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.13) 
