Despite a decent record at Couto Pereira over the first third of the season, Coritiba have conceded 12 times in their last six league matches, and Fortaleza can capitalise on such defensive deficiencies. They have scored twice in three of their last five outings, and can do so again to secure a point on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 43.43%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Coritiba would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
