Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 35.8%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Gremio
35.8% ( -2.29)	28.4% ( -0.27)	35.79% ( 2.56)

Both teams to score 46.6% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.28% (

1.13)

59.72% (

-1.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.98% (

0.86)

80.02% (

-0.85)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.27% (

-0.86)

31.73% (

0.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.85% (

-0.99)

68.15% (

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.26% (

2.3)

31.74% (

-2.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.84% (

2.55)

68.16% (

-2.55)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 35.8%

Gremio 35.79%

Draw 28.39%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.79) 2-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.62) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.3) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 35.8%	1-1 @ 13.26% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.44) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.39%	0-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.44) 0-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.53) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.34) 0-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.34) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.16) Other @ 2.87% Total : 35.79%