Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 35.8%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.