Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 59.96%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 17.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.94%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
-0.46) 
0.15) 
