The two sides head into Thursday's contest in contrasting form but the momentum is certainly with Hamburg, who will be confident of breaching Hertha Berlin's leaky backline given their free-scoring form in front of goal.
With a number of players missing for Hertha, we can see the visitors securing a slender victory, which would providing them with the advantage for next Monday's second leg on home soil.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 60.28%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 20.12% and a draw had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.64%) and 1-3 (7.2%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (5.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
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