Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.59%) and 0-2 (5.56%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
