While Augsburg undoubtedly come into this match with the better recent record, it is difficult to overlook their current injury list, which features several players that would make the starting 11 most weeks. Hoffenheim will likely throw everything into this match, given their current run of results, and we feel they will be able to claim a share of the spoils here against the short-handed visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (5.65%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
-0.57) 
0.52) 
