While M'gladbach have only won one of their three home games this season, it is worth noting that the defeats they conceded were against Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart, and they more than held their own in both those matches.
Still, Heidenheim have done their best work on the road this season, losing only once in five outings across all competitions, and we feel they will be able to get something from this one as well.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
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