With the absence of Timo Horn and Anthony Modeste being big misses for Koln in this one, it would have been easy to sway towards a Monchengladbach win here.
However, Koln's unbeaten home record so far means we are predicting that they will still manage to pick up a point in the derby with the boost of the home crowd, as well as their ability to avoid defeats so far this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
