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Thursday, March 28
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KL
Bundesliga | Gameweek 13
Nov 27, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
RheinEnergieStadion
BM

FC Koln
4 - 1
Borussia M'bach

Ljubicic (55'), Uth (77'), Duda (78'), Andersson (90+3')
Duda (60')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Hofmann (74')
Sommer (60'), Zakaria (64'), Thuram (90')

We said: FC Koln 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach

With the absence of Timo Horn and Anthony Modeste being big misses for Koln in this one, it would have been easy to sway towards a Monchengladbach win here. However, Koln's unbeaten home record so far means we are predicting that they will still manage to pick up a point in the derby with the boost of the home crowd, as well as their ability to avoid defeats so far this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.

Result
FC KolnDrawBorussia Monchengladbach
42.07%24.2%33.72%
Both teams to score 60.08%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.59%42.41%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18%64.81%
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.66%20.33%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.28%52.72%
Borussia Monchengladbach Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.41%24.59%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.91%59.08%
Score Analysis
    FC Koln 42.08%
    Borussia Monchengladbach 33.72%
    Draw 24.2%
FC KolnDrawBorussia Monchengladbach
2-1 @ 8.9%
1-0 @ 7.96%
2-0 @ 6.34%
3-1 @ 4.73%
3-0 @ 3.37%
3-2 @ 3.32%
4-1 @ 1.88%
4-0 @ 1.34%
4-2 @ 1.32%
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 42.08%
1-1 @ 11.17%
2-2 @ 6.24%
0-0 @ 5%
3-3 @ 1.55%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.2%
1-2 @ 7.84%
0-1 @ 7.01%
0-2 @ 4.92%
1-3 @ 3.67%
2-3 @ 2.92%
0-3 @ 2.3%
1-4 @ 1.29%
2-4 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 33.72%

Read more!
Read more!


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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