Despite Koln's tendency to nick points on the road, Sunday's game should favour the hosts. Mainz losing only two of their last 11 home games against the Billy Goats (four wins), securing 13 points from 15 under Henriksen and conceding twice in their last five Bundesliga games, with Koln letting in 11 in the same period, all point to a home victory this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 18.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
-0.19) 
0.07) 
