SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
52.01% ( 1.81) | 22.12% ( 0.05) | 25.87% ( -1.87) |
| Both teams to score 62.44% ( -1.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.9% ( -1.87) | 37.1% ( 1.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.7% ( -2.05) | 59.29% ( 2.04) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.54% ( -0.07) | 14.46% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.57% ( -0.13) | 42.43% ( 0.13) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73% ( -2.27) | 27% ( 2.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.65% ( -3.08) | 62.35% ( 3.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.65)2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.61)3-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.18)4-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.18)4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.35% Total : 52.01% | 1-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.27)0-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.12% | 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.31)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.31)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.17)Other @ 3% Total : 25.87% |
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