Despite the difference in league positions, this has all the potential to be a thoroughly-competitive fixture that could go either way. Mainz will back themselves to earn at least a draw, yet we fancy Freiburg to edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
1.81) 
-1.87) 
