Despite having a relatively poor record away to Koln, Mainz did beat them 5-0 in the reverse fixture back in October, and are in much better shape.
Koln have struggled to build on good results this season and could come undone again on home soil.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 49.9%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 26.15% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
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