Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.