Bremen have shown they can upset the bigger teams in the division, already claiming a win over Dortmund and a respectable draw against Leverkusen last time out.
However, Gladbach have made a solid start to their campaign, and Yann Sommer has been in exceptional form. It will be tough to get past the Swiss international.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
-0.49) 
0.09) 
