SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
71.03% ( 0.18) | 16.83% ( -0.06) | 12.14% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 54.65% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.18% ( -0.04) | 34.82% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.21% ( -0.05) | 56.79% ( 0.04) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.32% ( 0.03) | 8.68% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.1% ( 0.08) | 29.9% ( -0.08) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.84% ( -0.23) | 40.15% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.21% ( -0.21) | 76.79% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
| 2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 71.03% | 1-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.83% | 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 12.14% |
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