Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
50.19% ( 0.46) | 23.28% ( 0.16) | 26.53% ( -0.62) |
Both teams to score 58.95% ( -1.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.01% ( -1.27) | 41.99% ( 1.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.6% ( -1.28) | 64.4% ( 1.29) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.13% ( -0.3) | 16.86% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.12% ( -0.54) | 46.88% ( 0.55) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.9% ( -1.12) | 29.1% ( 1.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.98% ( -1.4) | 65.02% ( 1.41) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.21% Total : 50.19% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.27% | 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.36% Total : 26.53% |
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