We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United
Both teams would view a draw as a positive result ahead of the second leg at Old Trafford, and we are finding it difficult to separate them here. Man United are more than capable of finding the back of the net in Madrid, but Atletico will also expect to score at Wanda Metropolitano, so this contest could finish 1-1.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.85%) and 1-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (12.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
