We said: Barcelona 1-1 Atletico Madrid
This is a really, really difficult match to call, as both teams are still capable of putting in strong performances despite their issues this season. Simeone will demand an improvement from a defence which has been far from secure this term, and we can see a relatively cagey contest finishing all square.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
