Champions League | Quarter-Finals

Apr 14, 2021 at 8pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
1 - 2
Man City

Bellingham (15')
Bellingham (39')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mahrez (55' pen.), Foden (75')

Ilkay Gundogan: 'Weight has been lifted off us'

Pep Guardiola lavishes praise on Phil Foden

Guardiola relieved to lead Man City to CL semi-finals

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 2-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester City in this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Manchester City
21.6%	21.74%	56.65%

Both teams to score 58.38%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.93%

40.07%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.56%

62.43%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.88%

32.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.41%

68.59%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86%

14%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.47%

41.52%

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 21.6%

Manchester City 56.65%

Draw 21.74%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Manchester City
2-1 @ 5.7% 1-0 @ 5.11% 2-0 @ 2.9% 3-1 @ 2.16% 3-2 @ 2.12% 3-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.51% Total : 21.6%	1-1 @ 10.04% 2-2 @ 5.61% 0-0 @ 4.5% 3-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 0.21% Total : 21.74%	1-2 @ 9.87% 0-1 @ 8.84% 0-2 @ 8.69% 1-3 @ 6.47% 0-3 @ 5.7% 2-3 @ 3.67% 1-4 @ 3.18% 0-4 @ 2.8% 2-4 @ 1.81% 1-5 @ 1.25% 0-5 @ 1.1% Other @ 3.27% Total : 56.65%