Ballkani will believe that they need to pick up a strong result in the first leg to stand a chance of progressing to the second qualifying round, but we are finding it very difficult to predict anything other than an away success due to the gap in quality between the two sets of players.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Zalgiris win with a probability of 65.34%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for KF Ballkani had a probability of 13.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Zalgiris win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.78%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%), while for a KF Ballkani win it was 1-0 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.03) 
