SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 50.47%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln Red Imps | Draw | Qarabag FK |
26.52% ( -3.23) | 23.01% ( -0.3) | 50.47% ( 3.53) |
| Both teams to score 59.86% ( -1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.21% ( -0.89) | 40.79% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.82% ( -0.91) | 63.18% ( 0.92) |
| Lincoln Red Imps Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.53% ( -2.68) | 28.47% ( 2.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.76% ( -3.5) | 64.24% ( 3.5) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0.98) | 16.32% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% ( 1.74) | 45.9% ( -1.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lincoln Red Imps | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 2-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.54) 1-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.43)3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.46)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.33)3-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.32)Other @ 3.53% Total : 26.52% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.6)0-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.77)1-3 @ 5.8% ( 0.35)0-3 @ 4.61% ( 0.6)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.63% ( 0.24)0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.33)2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.45% Total : 50.47% |
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