SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
30.59% ( 0.05) | 23.04% ( -0.02) | 46.37% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 62.89% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.87% ( 0.13) | 38.13% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.6% ( 0.14) | 60.4% ( -0.13) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.62% ( 0.1) | 24.38% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.21% ( 0.13) | 58.79% ( -0.13) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.17% ( 0.04) | 16.83% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.18% ( 0.07) | 46.82% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.09% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.04% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.46% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.28% Total : 46.37% |
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