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Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 27, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano
CL

Real Madrid
1 - 1
Chelsea

Benzema (29')
Junior (27'), Kroos (60'), Marcelo (65'), Varane (78'), Odriozola (89')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Pulisic (14')
Pulisic (38')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.61%) and 2-3 (5.19%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 2-1 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Real MadridDrawChelsea
33.98%20.5%45.51%
Both teams to score 74.45%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
76.18%23.81%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
56.64%43.35%
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.27%15.72%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.18%44.81%
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.34%11.65%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.3%36.7%
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid 33.98%
    Chelsea 45.51%
    Draw 20.5%
Real MadridDrawChelsea
2-1 @ 6.74%
3-2 @ 4.47%
3-1 @ 4.16%
1-0 @ 3.39%
2-0 @ 3.14%
4-2 @ 2.07%
3-0 @ 1.93%
4-1 @ 1.92%
4-3 @ 1.48%
Other @ 4.69%
Total : 33.98%
1-1 @ 7.29%
2-2 @ 7.24%
3-3 @ 3.2%
0-0 @ 1.83%
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 20.5%
1-2 @ 7.83%
1-3 @ 5.61%
2-3 @ 5.19%
0-2 @ 4.23%
0-1 @ 3.94%
0-3 @ 3.03%
1-4 @ 3.02%
2-4 @ 2.79%
3-4 @ 1.72%
0-4 @ 1.63%
1-5 @ 1.3%
2-5 @ 1.2%
Other @ 4.02%
Total : 45.51%

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