Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 2-1 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
