Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday.
Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
1.17) 
-1.23) 
