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Bundesliga | Gameweek 3
Sep 3, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
LL

Union Berlin
0 - 3
RB Leipzig


Kral (27'), Gosens (80'), Haberer (81')
Volland (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Simons (51'), Sesko (85', 87')
Henrichs (26')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Union Berlin 1-2 RB Leipzig

Union Berlin are missing a ridiculous amount of players through injury at present, which is a shame as it would be great to see both of these sides face each other at full-strength. Although the hosts have looked mightily impressive so far this season - and indeed over the course of their previous three campaigns at this level since gaining promotion - we can envisage Leipzig taking advantage of their opponent's busy treatment table by edging to a tight victory on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 43.91%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawRB Leipzig
43.91% (1.058 1.06) 25.58% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 30.51% (-1.052 -1.05)
Both teams to score 54.02% (-0.478 -0.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.26% (-0.399 -0.4)49.74% (0.401 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.25% (-0.357 -0.36)71.75% (0.35899999999999 0.36)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.42% (0.33300000000001 0.33)22.58% (-0.331 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.81% (0.492 0.49)56.19% (-0.49 -0.49)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.78% (-0.919 -0.92)30.22% (0.921 0.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.62% (-1.114 -1.11)66.38% (1.115 1.11)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 43.91%
    RB Leipzig 30.51%
    Draw 25.58%
Union BerlinDrawRB Leipzig
1-0 @ 10.15% (0.258 0.26)
2-1 @ 9.04% (0.095000000000001 0.1)
2-0 @ 7.56% (0.267 0.27)
3-1 @ 4.48% (0.09 0.09)
3-0 @ 3.75% (0.168 0.17)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.67% (0.05 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.076 0.08)
4-2 @ 1% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 43.91%
1-1 @ 12.15% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.82% (0.11 0.11)
2-2 @ 5.41% (-0.081 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.58%
0-1 @ 8.17% (-0.075000000000001 -0.08)
1-2 @ 7.27% (-0.183 -0.18)
0-2 @ 4.89% (-0.172 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.9% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.089 -0.09)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.121 -0.12)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 30.51%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: SV Darmstadt 98 1-4 Union Berlin
Saturday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 4-1 Mainz
Sunday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-0 Werder Bremen
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 4-2 Union Berlin
Saturday, May 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 4-2 Freiburg
Saturday, May 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 5-1 Stuttgart
Friday, August 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 3-2 RB Leipzig
Saturday, August 19 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 0-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, August 12 at 7.45pm in DFL-Supercup
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-0 Frankfurt
Saturday, June 3 at 7pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-2 Schalke
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, May 20 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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