Real Madrid have not lost at San Mames in La Liga since March 2015, winning on their last four visits to the stadium in Spain's top flight. There have been some teething problems for Los Blancos during pre-season in terms of their new formation, but we are backing Ancelotti's side to navigate their way to all three points.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
0.32) 
-0.54) 
