SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 70.37%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 11.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Leeds United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Leeds United.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Derby County |
70.37% ( -0.38) | 18.46% ( 0.38) | 11.17% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 45.42% ( -1.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.82% ( -1.68) | 45.18% ( 1.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.47% ( -1.63) | 67.52% ( 1.63) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.39% ( -0.57) | 11.61% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.4% ( -1.24) | 36.6% ( 1.24) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.39% ( -1.08) | 48.61% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.32% ( -0.79) | 83.68% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-0 @ 13.08% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 12.15% ( 0.59)2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.78% ( -0.19)4-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.15)5-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.32% Total : 70.37% | 1-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.65% Total : 18.46% | 0-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.47% Total : 11.17% |
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