SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 76.43%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 8.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.51%) and 1-0 (10.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.17%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (2.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Luton Town |
76.43% ( 1.28) | 15.08% ( -0.45) | 8.49% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 46.64% ( -2.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.2% ( -0.73) | 37.8% ( 0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.95% ( -0.79) | 60.05% ( 0.79) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.79% ( 0.11) | 8.22% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.26% ( 0.27) | 28.74% ( -0.27) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.82% ( -2.33) | 49.19% ( 2.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.92% ( -1.71) | 84.09% ( 1.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Luton Town |
| 2-0 @ 12.61% ( 0.56) 3-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.52)1-0 @ 10.09% ( 0.4)2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.36)4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.22)5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.13)6-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.09)6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 3.31% Total : 76.42% | 1-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.29)Other @ 0.7% Total : 15.08% | 0-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.06% Total : 8.49% |
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