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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Swansea City |
47.8% ( -0.5) | 25.58% ( 0.06) | 26.62% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 51.51% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.17% ( 0.07) | 51.83% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.41% ( 0.06) | 73.59% ( -0.06) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.3% ( -0.19) | 21.69% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.15% ( -0.29) | 54.84% ( 0.29) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.78% ( 0.4) | 34.22% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.08% ( 0.43) | 70.92% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Swansea City |
| 1-0 @ 11.34% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.67% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 47.79% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.42% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.57% | 0-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.23% Total : 26.62% |
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