SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
56.15% ( 0.04) | 22.67% ( -0.02) | 21.18% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.58% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.19% ( 0.07) | 44.81% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.83% ( 0.07) | 67.16% ( -0.07) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.22% ( 0.04) | 15.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.09% ( 0.07) | 44.91% ( -0.07) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.81% ( 0.02) | 35.19% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.05% ( 0.03) | 71.94% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0)2-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 56.14% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 1.96% Total : 21.18% |
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