Watford are in desperate need of three points in order to keep their promotion hopes alive, and we expect a response out of the Hornets following their defeat at QPR on Saturday.
Birmingham will be in a relaxed mood following their much-needed victory over Rotherham and subsequent movement away from the relegation zone, but we believe this could lead to a sub-par display at Vicarage Road.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
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