Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 51.83%. A win for Shandong Luneng Taishan had a probability of 24.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Shandong Luneng Taishan win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.