SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Cangzhou Mighty Lions | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Shanghai Port | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Shanghai Port | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 45.82%. A win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
45.82% ( 0.67) | 26.39% ( -0.3) | 27.78% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 49.92% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.69% ( 0.96) | 54.31% ( -0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.3% ( 0.8) | 75.7% ( -0.8) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.35% ( 0.74) | 23.64% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.26% ( 1.06) | 57.74% ( -1.06) |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.38% ( 0.22) | 34.62% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.66% ( 0.24) | 71.34% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
| 1-0 @ 11.8% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.71% Total : 45.82% | 1-1 @ 12.52% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.39% | 0-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.18% Total : 27.78% |
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