Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 37.69%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Changchun Yatai would win this match.