Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Hebei had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Hebei win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.