SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Henan had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Henan win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Henan | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
29.88% ( 0.05) | 25.29% ( 0.03) | 44.83% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 54.64% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.22% ( -0.12) | 48.77% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.12% ( -0.11) | 70.88% ( 0.11) |
| Henan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% ( -0.03) | 30.17% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.68% ( -0.03) | 66.32% ( 0.03) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.25% ( -0.09) | 21.75% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.07% ( -0.14) | 54.93% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Henan | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.87% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.88% ( 0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 29.88% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.64% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.88% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 44.82% |
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