SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 56.78%. A win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 22.1% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win was 1-2 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
56.78% ( -0.31) | 21.12% ( 0.1) | 22.1% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 61.38% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.53% ( -0.19) | 36.47% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.39% ( -0.21) | 58.61% ( 0.21) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.23% ( -0.15) | 12.77% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.94% ( -0.32) | 39.06% ( 0.32) |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( 0.08) | 29.64% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.32% ( 0.1) | 65.68% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.44% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.42% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.04% Total : 56.78% | 1-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.12% | 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 4.6% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.06% Total : 22.1% |
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