SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 54.21%. A win for Wuhan Three Towns had a probability of 24.27% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.44%) and 1-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
54.21% ( -0.24) | 21.52% ( 0.18) | 24.27% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 62.83% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.18% ( -0.81) | 35.81% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.1% ( -0.9) | 57.89% ( 0.9) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.67% ( -0.35) | 13.32% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.82% ( -0.7) | 40.18% ( 0.7) |
| Wuhan Three Towns Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.49% ( -0.4) | 27.5% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.99% ( -0.52) | 63.01% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
| 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.11)1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 5% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.04% Total : 54.21% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.52% | 1-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.7% Total : 24.27% |
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