SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Dominica had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Dominica win it was 0-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Saint Lucia | Draw | Dominica |
50.94% ( 0.16) | 27.5% ( -0.01) | 21.55% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 41.43% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.58% ( -0.1) | 62.41% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.96% ( -0.08) | 82.04% ( 0.08) |
| Saint Lucia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.19% ( 0.03) | 24.81% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.6% ( 0.04) | 59.4% ( -0.04) |
| Dominica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.1% ( -0.23) | 44.9% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.15% ( -0.18) | 80.85% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saint Lucia | Draw | Dominica |
| 1-0 @ 15.52% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.03% 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 2.11% Total : 50.94% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.49% | 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.87% Total : 21.55% |
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